Every formula in the Blueprint, working
The calculators
Back & lay, bonus conversion, odds, break-even and EV are free forever, no account. The staking suite comes with the Full Blueprint, and the odds comparison and devig tools with All Sports. Each one links back to the chapter that explains it.
Qualifying bet · stake returned
Back & lay
How much to lay so the result stops mattering, and exactly what the position costs you.
Bonus bet · stake not returned
Bonus conversion
Turn a free bet into guaranteed cash, and see what share of it you keep.
Value betting
EV & edge
What a price is worth on average. Give it a true probability, or a fair price to work back from.
Conversion
Odds, probability & vig
Every format, the implied probability, and the bookmaker's margin stripped out of a two-way market.
Staking
Kelly stake sizer
Full Kelly is too violent for real bankrolls. The house standard is a third, then capped at the Blueprint's 1–2% ceiling.
Before it happens to you
Variance & drawdown
The swing on a single bet, how many bets before an edge shows through, and the drawdown to brace for.
The number most punters never do
Break-even win rate
The strike rate a price needs just to keep you level, and what you actually hit.
The professional's scoreboard
CLV tracker
Log the price you took and the price it closed at. Beat the close consistently and profit follows. Saved in this browser only.
Limited account · what they must lay
Minimum bet limit
A bookmaker under a minimum bet obligation has to accept a bet that stands to lose them a set amount. This is the stake that reaches it at your odds.
Minimum bet obligations differ by state and race type, and none of them apply to every market. Check the bookmaker's published policy before relying on this.
Read Part 8 →Two-way market · fair price
Devig
Strip the bookmaker's margin out of a two-way market to see the price implied underneath it. Both sides have to be quoted.
The maths behind every one of these
Part Two derives the back-and-lay and bonus formulas in full. Parts Five to Seven do EV, closing-line value and the variance maths. All are in the Blueprint.